The Next Emerging Markets After BRIC
By Global Intelligence Alliance
According to the Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Report by Global Intelligence Alliance (GIA), Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) will retain their leading positions as the worlds’ top emerging markets for 2012-2017. In a ranking of the top 30 emerging markets international companies plan to target in 2012-2017, most of the non-BRIC emerging markets are in Asia or Latin America, with Indonesia, South Africa, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey and Argentina ranking highest amongst secondary emerging markets.
With 2012-2017 economic growth projections [by IMF] of 3.7% for Brazil and 3.9% for Russia, compared to 8.5% for China and 7.4% for India for BRIC countries, it would seem that Brazil and Russia are attracting global investment for reasons other than their growth rates, such as their potentially huge domestic markets, natural resources and dominance within their regions.
Indonesia is the next upcoming emerging market, with over a quarter of companies naming it fifth after the BRIC countries. South Africa is in sixth position, Vietnam in seventh position, Mexico in eighth position and Turkey in ninth position. Ranked number 10 is Argentina followed by Thailand and Chile in eleventh and twelfth position respectively.
Of the secondary and up-and-coming emerging markets, Vietnam is favored amongst consumer and retail, logistics as well as energy and resources industry players, while pharmaceutical and healthcare companies prefer Mexico as the emerging market to focus on for the next five years. Chemical, manufacturing and industrial as well as financial services industry players have a clear focus on Indonesia and South Africa as their fifth and sixth tier emerging markets to 2017. Automotive industry players choose South Africa as their most important Emerging Market after BRIC.
The Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Report by GIA says that international companies’ reasons for investing in emerging markets can be complex, but are usually mainly centered around the potential for building long term revenues and global market share more rapidly than is possible in established markets. It has become less about lower production costs, though this is still a driver for some. Almost all the companies (91%) surveyed by GIA say they could have done something better in their emerging market strategy. The main regrets are not adapting more to local conditions, not entering sooner and not acquiring better market intelligence.
“Different emerging markets attract companies for different reasons. The fast-growing giants such as China and Brazil are of course top of many companies’ hit lists. But further down the ranking we find tiny Singapore in 15th position, favored for its ease of access and status as a hub for Southeast Asia expansion, alongside a giant like 16th ranked Nigeria, where doing business is far more risky and spending power is much lower, but the population at 170 million is not far off that of Brazil (206m). Growth in Nigeria has been strong and steady in the five to 10 percent range for several years now. ‘Emerging markets’ is a catch-all that masks the many differences between countries as diverse as Turkey, South Korea and Mexico, which is why local intelligence is always important,” said Pete Read, head of Strategic Analysis & Advisory at Global Intelligence Alliance.
Table: The top 30 Emerging Markets for 2012-2017
(Rank, Country , % Respondents)
1 India 66.4%
2 Brazil 65.7%
3 China 65.4%
4 Russia 39.7%
5 Indonesia 27.4%
6 South Africa 22.2%
7 Vietnam 20.1%
8 Mexico 18.5%
9 Turkey 17.8%
10 Argentina 10.3%
11 Thailand 9.5%
12 Chile 9.3%
13 South Korea 8.6%
14 Malaysia 8.4%
15 Singapore 8.1%
16 Nigeria 7.7%
17 Colombia 7.4%
18 Saudi Arabia 7.4%
19 Poland 7.0%
20 Philippines 6.7%
21 UAE 6.0%
22 Egypt 5.1%
23 Taiwan 4.9%
24 Hong Kong 4.6%
25 Peru 4.6%
26 Romania 4.2%
27 Czech Republic 3.7%
28 Bangladesh 3.0%
29 Pakistan 3.0%
30 Hungary 2.3%
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About Global Intelligence Alliance http://www.globalintelligence.com
Global Intelligence Alliance (GIA) is a strategic market intelligence and advisory group. GIA was formed in 1995 when a team of market intelligence specialists, management consultants, industry analysts and technology experts came together to build a powerful suite of customized solutions ranging from outsourced market monitoring services and software, to strategic analysis and advisory.
Today, we are the preferred partner for organizations seeking to understand, compete and grow in international markets. Our industry expertise and coverage of over 100 countries enables our customers to make better informed decisions worldwide.
About the Business Perspectives for Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Report www.globalintelligence.com/insights-analysis/emerging-markets
In April-May 2012, Global Intelligence Alliance (GIA) conducted an online survey amongst business managers at 431 large and mid-sized companies and organizations worldwide, with questions such as:
• How do you define Emerging Markets in your company?
• Which are the top Emerging Markets for your industry over the next five years?
• What key factors will determine whether foreign companies succeed in Emerging Markets?
• What are the biggest threats to succeeding in Emerging Markets?
• What are your company’s main reasons for investing in Emerging Markets?
• What share of your company’s global revenue do you expect to come from Emerging Markets?
• Which one aspect of your Emerging Markets strategy would you go back and change if you could?
Industries covered include: Manufacturing & Industrial; Telecommunication, Technology & Media; Professional & Business Services; Financial Services; Consumer & Retail; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Energy, Resources & Environment; Automotive; Chemicals; Logistics & Transportation.
Respondents: Nearly half (42%) of the companies in the survey earned more than $1.3 billion (1 billion Euro) in annual revenue and more than 50% (58%) have more than 1,000 employees. The respondents’ job functions included strategic planning/business development (26%), market/competitive intelligence (23%), senior management (19%), sales and marketing (13%), research and development/product management (9%), among others.
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